Saturday, May 22, 2010

Job search: Campbell is on the road to where, exactly?

Job search: Campbell is on the road to where, exactly?

Job search: Campbell is on the road to where, exactly?

Posted: 22 May 2010 05:18 AM PDT

When Premier Gordon Campbell hinted last week he might not be leading the B.C. Liberals into the next provincial election, he sparked a furious round of speculation about his possible next job.

Political insiders, government staffers and other observers had already been watching the down-in-the-polls premier with great interest, musing that the post-Olympic doldrums could be high time for the man first sworn in as premier in June 2001 to make his exit.

But the fact the comments came on the heels of a rare overseas trip with Prime Minister Stephen Harper greatly heightened the drama, leading some to wonder if the prime minister and premier had used the time to discuss Campbell's future. Still loyal to Campbell, no one would speak publicly this week about the possible options, but many have wondered aloud if Campbell is on the brink of a new career.

The moment that sparked the most speculation took place last week when, for the first time, Campbell addressed his political future with something other than absolute certainty.

"You know, 2013 is a long way away and I am 62 years old now. So I'll make decisions as I get towards 2013," Campbell told Global BC in an interview.

Campbell, who is now travelling in China and Japan, quickly and firmly backtracked, promising a 2013 run within minutes of the interview hitting the airwaves.

"I have every expectation I'll be running for office again," he told The Vancouver Sun.

"I promise you this. I'll talk about my age when I'm running in 2013," he added, making light of the reaction arising from the earlier comments.

Strong talk, but for a province used to Campbell's measured words, the seeds of doubt had already been planted.

In the capital, people have also taken notice as Campbell has been away from the cabinet table more than usual recently, apparently even during some important decisions for his government.

Plus, a cabinet shuffle expected this June is apparently now on hold. The shuffle -- which a leader can use as a springboard for new approaches and ideas -- was expected to come after the end of the legislative session, and after Campbell's rookie appointments from last June had been on the job for a year.

If nothing else, a shuffle would give Campbell a chance to address Minister of State Mary McNeil, who was left with only ActNow under her purview after the Olympics came to an end.

Reports from inside government now suggest, however, a shuffle won't happen until the fall or early winter, with no firm reason offered as to why.

And then there's Campbell's overseas trip alongside Harper, officially meant to mark the 65th anniversary of the liberation of the Netherlands by Canadian troops.

The rare joint international appearance by Harper and Campbell has many wondering if the prime minister invited Campbell along to discuss options for the future.

Thoughts being floated include a post leading a national approach to climate change or clean energy, a job overseeing a Canadian strategy for Africa -- where Campbell taught when he was younger -- or something arising from Campbell's recent work with first nations.

So far, the speculation has been only that: speculation. But it wouldn't be the first time Harper has pulled from the pool of sitting premiers for a top appointment. One only has to go back to last August, when Harper plucked Gary Doer from his job as Manitoba's premier and made him Canada's ambassador to the United States.

And with Campbell's popularity plunging to new lows in the polls -- and people noticing his seeming lack of focus -- speculation is only getting louder.

"[Campbell] is not as clearly focused on B.C. issues as he was," said retired political science professor and veteran political observer Norman Ruff. "He seems to be transitioning into something else."

Ruff said when he saw Harper and Campbell together -- both in Europe and at the Olympics -- he thought Campbell might be angling for a job as the next governor-general. But, Ruff pointed out, Campbell is not bilingual, and thus would be immediately disqualified.

"If he was bilingual, I would seriously entertain that," he said. "But in this day and age, that's a major obstacle that would scrub him for that."

Ruff said he can see a position related to a narrow policy role where Campbell has established credentials, such as the environment. Campbell is the only premier to have introduced a carbon tax, has been a champion for the Western Climate Initiative and was in Copenhagen last year as part of the international conference.

"It would be a good move for Harper, and they would start off on common ground," said Ruff, adding the two are not necessarily as divided on the issue as it may at first appear.

"Campbell was not in the pro-Kyoto camp originally," said Ruff. "He could converse with Harper quite comfortably with how policy should develop."

As to when Campbell would move if he chose to do so, Ruff said Campbell appears to have the support of his government, and thus could stay on as long as he pleases.

"I don't sense there's pushing and shoving going on. There's still enormous loyalty to him," said Ruff, adding that if left to his own devices, Campbell would likely wait until late 2011, or even 2012, before making a decision.

But, he added, if the decision is to move to a federal role, that timeline gets quickly compressed.

"No one wants an election right now federally, but at some point there will be one, either late fall or next spring," he said, adding such a contest has the potential to unseat Harper and scrub any potential offer.

"If there is something national, then he has to do it while Harper still has the ability to deliver it for him."

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